From risk to resilience

Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) and National Adaptation Plan (NAP) present a clear warning: climate risks are escalating, and agriculture and food security are among the most vulnerable systems. By 2050, risks to the agriculture sector are projected to rise to very high, while impacts on the natural environment - the foundation of farming - are expected to reach severe.

Farmers manage over half of Australia’s landscapes and must be central to the nation’s climate response. Yet current policies risk sidelining them, deepening distrust at a time when collaboration is essential. SEAOAK Consulting believes that genuine partnership with farmers, underpinned by shared value and co-design, is critical to delivering solutions that strengthen food security, accelerate decarbonisation, and build climate resilience across landscapes.

National climate risks and adaptation planning

The NCRA highlights that Australia is warming faster than the global average, with projections of a 2–3°C increase this century. The assessment concludes with a very high degree of confidence that climate change will not occur gradually or smoothly, but instead through abrupt shifts triggered by tipping points.

The report identifies ten priority climate risks in Australia including extreme heat, drought (particularly Southwest Australia), bushfires (particularly Southern and Eastern Australia), sea level rise, ocean acidification, supply chain disruptions, and loss of critical biodiversity. For regional and rural Australia, these translate into higher production costs and risks, degraded natural resources, and threats to infrastructure and community resilience.

The companion NAP sets out how Australia will adapt to these climate-related risks across seven systems: economy and finance, infrastructure, natural environment, health and social, communities, defence and security, and primary industries and food. 

What the projections mean for Australian agriculture

For the Australian agriculture industry, the message is clear: climate risks will intensify, but farmers are also uniquely positioned to deliver national solutions. To encourage farmers with being part of the solution, they must be rewarded for delivering environmental outcomes that contribute to national goals. Some of the agriculture-related climate risks identified in Australia's first NCRA include:

Operational pressures: Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events will increase the likelihood of farm productivity or crop yield challenges, and potential livestock losses. Insurance premiums, input costs, and supply chain disruptions are all expected to escalate under climate projections in Australia, placing further pressure on farmers and their margins.

Market and trade dynamics: Global markets are increasingly demanding sustainable, climate-conscious products with full traceability. The EU, US, and key Asian partners are tightening import requirements around deforestation-free supply chains and environmental performance. Without investment in resilience and sustainability, Australian exports risk losing competitiveness if climate shocks disrupt production or logistics.

Finance and compliance: As of January 2025, mandatory climate reporting and climate risk disclosures now apply to large agribusinesses in Australia. Access to finance will increasingly depend on credible adaptation strategies and sustainability credentials. Farmers who can demonstrate resilience and alignment with global standards will be better placed to secure investment and market access.

As climate-related risks intensify across Australia and the agriculture industry, we must embrace innovative solutions and policy frameworks that accelerate progress towards our national targets - while simultaneously incentivising farmers, businesses, landholders, and communities to become active partners in the solution. 

Victorian case study: the risk of alienating farmers

Despite the national push for adaptation, several recent Victorian policy decisions risk eroding trust with farming communities:

• Emergency services levy: The levy adds tens of thousands of dollars in additional costs for many Victorian producers each year - compounding pressures from drought, rising production costs, and mental health challenges. While strengthening emergency services is no doubt essential, the approach taken by the Victorian government risks being seen as punitive rather than supportive. All one has to do is drive an hour from the city and it becomes hard to miss the countless CFA outfits that have been hung up over farm gates and fences across regional and rural Victoria in response to the emergency services levy that disproportionately impacts farmers

  
  

• Transmission lines legislation: New laws granting renewable energy companies access to farmland, with penalties for farmers who resist, have heightened tensions. Many farmers view this as a threat to land sovereignty, biosecurity, and productive use of farmland - particularly when consultation processes feel limited or one-sided

  
  

• Dederang BESS project: Approval of the battery energy storage system in north-east Victoria, despite strong local opposition from community and council, has become a flashpoint. Farmers fear loss of productive land, fire and safety risks, and disruption to livelihoods. Such decisions reinforce perceptions of top-down policymaking that excludes those most affected

Farmers as a national partner in advancing climate adaptation

These examples illustrate how government policies intended to advance climate solutions can inadvertently alienate farmers who should be central to the national climate solution. Without genuine consultation and co-design, the risk is that agriculture is framed as an obstacle rather than a partner in climate mitigation and adaptation.

Australian farmers manage 55% of the nation’s land. Their role in protecting food security, managing biodiversity, and delivering nature-based solutions is indispensable. Rather than being sidelined, farmers should be positioned as co-leaders in the climate transition, with policies that incentivise resilience, integrate renewable energy with productive land use, and share benefits and value fairly with regional and rural communities. Renewable energy developments must be designed to complement rather than displace agriculture. 

How SEAOAK is scaling-up climate resilience in the Australian agriculture industry 

SEAOAK Consulting is working with industry, farmers and government to demonstrate how agriculture can be placed at the heart of Australia’s climate strategy. The team is currently managing two Australian-first, industry-leading projects:

• National Beef Sustainability Traceability Pilot: In collaboration with 12 industry partners, SEAOAK is developing a scalable digital solution to help beef producers track, verify, and communicate sustainability and environmental credentials across supply chains. This pilot addresses growing market and compliance pressures highlighted in the NCRA and is intended to be rolled out across thousands of beef producers from late next year

  
  

• Landscape Enterprise Networks (LENs) by 3Keel: LENs is a collaborative and scalable nature investment model that connects corporates, governments, investors and farmers to co-fund projects that enhance the health, productivity, and resilience of shared landscapes. SEAOAK recently partnered with the government to undertake a pre-feasibility assessment for bringing the UK-based LENs model to Australia. The team looked at how the LENs model aligned with government priorities, how it interacted with or complemented Australia's existing environmental markets, and how the model might need to be adapted to suit an Australian landscape and market.

Australia’s climate risks are intensifying, and agriculture is on the frontline. But rather than being treated as a sector to be "managed", farming communities must be engaged as co-designers and partners in building national resilience across landscapes. The NCRA and NAP highlight the urgency; SEAOAK’s projects demonstrate innovative blueprints that can be scales for impact.

By aligning adaptation strategies with farmer engagement and engaging in co-design and innovation with farmers, SEAOAK is demonstrating how Australia can deliver solutions aligned with both government priorities and farmer needs. 

As always, if you are interested in learning more about SEAOAK's projects, please don't hesitate to get in touch with our team.

ebony@seaoakconsulting.com.au

carli@seaoakconsulting.com.au